Speaker Mike Johnson stepped before reporters after a closed-door Republican meeting and delivered a message his party had spent months trying to avoid: the war with Iran is hitting Americans in the wallet. Gas and diesel prices remain too high, he said, pointing to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. And the situation, he added, is unlikely to be resolved until after the midterms.
It was a striking acknowledgment from a party that has long counted on its economic credibility. For years, Republicans have been the default choice for voters worried about the economy. In 2016, 2020, and 2024, that advantage held. But now, with a shooting war in the Middle East and inflation still biting, the political ground is shifting.
An Uncomfortable Admission
Johnson didn’t stop at acknowledging the problem. He predicted relief would come once commerce stabilizes. He also tried to redirect blame, saying the administration had inherited a disastrous situation from Biden and Harris. But the core admission—that the war has driven up prices—was the headline.
President Trump, for his part, has signaled that a resolution might not arrive until after the election. That timeline has left Republican strategists who once hoped for a pre-election peace deal scrambling to adjust. The war, which began under this administration, has now become a central issue in races across the country.
The numbers explain the anxiety. A New York Times/Siena University poll found Trump’s overall job approval at 38%. On the economy, it’s 39%. On cost of living, just 28%. And on his handling of the Iran war, 31%. Meanwhile, voters trust Democrats over Republicans on the economy by 7 points, on cost of living by 8 points, and on the deficit by 10 points. Democrats also lead the generic ballot by nearly 9 points.
Those figures are a far cry from 2024, when exit polls showed the economy was the top issue and voters who prioritized it chose Trump over Kamala Harris 81% to 18%. That year, voters trusted Trump over Harris on the economy 53% to 46%. Now, that advantage has evaporated.
The War’s Economic Toll
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the Iran war caused more than one-third of this year’s inflation increase. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been a key factor in rising energy costs. Johnson said prices will drop when commerce stabilizes, but he offered no timeline beyond the post-election period.
Democrats are wasting no time capitalizing. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the conflict a reckless and costly war of choice. His party is now positioning itself as the reliable steward of the economy—a role Republicans have held for nearly a decade.
“The American people are paying the price for a war they didn’t ask for,” Jeffries said, according to a Democratic aide. “Democrats are focused on lowering costs and restoring economic security.”
The economic pain extends beyond gas prices. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, reflecting investor concerns about inflation and government borrowing. In 15 districts, more than half of the $575 million spent on House ads from Labor Day to Election Day has gone toward economic messaging—a sign of where both parties see the battleground.
Supreme Court Blocks Trump Election Moves
While Republicans wrestle with the economy, the Supreme Court has handed them a series of defeats on election-related matters. Last week and last night, the court blocked Trump’s plan to assert federal control over mail-in ballots through Postal Service regulation. It also declined to revive a Missouri congressional map that would have eliminated one Democratic district.
The court’s 6-3 conservative majority has shown a willingness to limit extreme requests, especially those that could disrupt elections close to or underway. Experts say the justices are wary of late interventions that could destabilize the electoral process.
Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel, said the court is signaling that it will scrutinize extraordinary actions that threaten to upend the electoral process. “The court is not inclined to be a rubber stamp for last-minute changes,” Bauer said.
Trump responded angrily, calling the ruling a big loss for Republicans and America. He repeated his unfounded claims that mail-in ballots make cheating easier for Democrats. He praised Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas as legends, while criticizing his own three appointed justices as shells of their original selves.
The decisions come as the court continues to navigate a politically charged landscape. While the conservative majority has delivered wins on other fronts, its reluctance to intervene in election disputes may frustrate the president and his allies.
Other Developments
In other news, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate yesterday after an absence of more than three months. His return comes as Republicans try to unify their message on the economy and national security.
Vice President JD Vance advised GOP lawmakers to talk about Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, according to a person familiar with the remarks. The suggestion reflects a broader strategy to tie Democrats to progressive positions.
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom said he would not run for president if Kamala Harris does. The comment, made during a press conference, adds a new dynamic to the 2028 Democratic primary speculation.
The Kennedy Center board voted to shutter the center, citing its dire financial and structural condition. The vote came after a judge rejected adding Trump’s name to the facade. Trump had promised to share names of donors for a ballroom project, but only a partial list has been made public. The White House East Wing was torn down for a $400 million ballroom project.
Meanwhile, an unusual lineup of speakers—including Senator Bernie Sanders and Trump ally Steve Bannon—appeared at a pro-human AI summit. The event highlighted growing safety fears in the U.S. and China over AI advances, and calls to slow development are raising questions about economic growth.
What It Means
For Republicans, the challenge is clear: they must convince voters they can still manage the economy, even as a war they largely support drives up prices. The Supreme Court’s election rulings add another layer of uncertainty, limiting some of the party’s more aggressive moves.
Democrats, meanwhile, see an opening. With polls showing them leading on the economy, cost of living, and the deficit, they are betting that voter frustration will translate into gains at the ballot box.
The midterms are still months away, but the contours of the debate are already set. Republicans are adjusting their message. Democrats are amplifying theirs. And the war in Iran, with its economic fallout, is likely to remain at the center of it all.
