In a move that has reignited a long-standing debate among researchers and gun rights advocates, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has restored a contested range of defensive gun use estimates to its website. The figures, which suggest Americans use firearms in self-defense between 60,000 and 2.5 million times annually, had been removed in 2022 after criticism from violence researchers.
CDC's Reinstated Data and Its Implications
The CDC’s page on firearm injury and death prevention now includes the estimate that Americans use guns defensively 60,000 to 2.5 million times each year. This change, noted in July, aligns with the Trump administration’s strong support for Second Amendment rights and echoes a long-promoted gun lobby narrative that a “good guy with a gun” is essential to stopping a “bad guy with a gun.”
The lower figure of 60,000 is derived from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), a federal survey of crime victims conducted twice a year. The upper figure of 2.5 million comes from surveys conducted in the early 1990s by criminologist Gary Kleck, who has been described as a “gun control skeptic.”
Researchers and academics have consistently disputed these numbers, and the previous inclusion of the range on the CDC’s website was met with staunch opposition from gun violence experts. The agency had removed the estimate in 2022 after lobbying by researchers including Mark Bryant, who leads the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), and Devin Hughes, who runs GVPedia, a nonprofit gun violence research organization. At that time, the CDC replaced the numbers with language noting that estimates of defensive gun use vary widely depending on study design and that additional research is necessary.
Now, the restoration has drawn sharp criticism. Bryant called the decision a “shame,” dismissing the figures as “nothing more than gross estimates based on limited surveys.” Hughes expressed disappointment, calling the move “the politically motivated laundering of disinformation that has become a hallmark of the Trump administration’s approach to all scientific inquiry, and gun violence is no exception.”
Archived versions of the CDC page, dated February 18, 2026, show that the agency republished the numbers on July 23, according to the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.
Understanding Defensive Gun Use Data
Defensive gun use (DGU) is defined by the Gun Violence Archive as using a firearm to protect oneself or family, which may involve firing the weapon or merely brandishing it. Examples include shooting an attacker in mid-assault or displaying a gun to discourage a burglar.
Measuring the prevalence of DGU is challenging. Law enforcement agencies do not typically classify it as a stand-alone category. The FBI tracks justifiable homicides, but states are not required to submit those figures, making the data incomplete. The FBI data also omits brandishings and instances where individuals fight off an attack without firing.
The Lower Estimate: National Crime Victimization Survey
The most recent NCVS data on defensive gun use, published in 2022, found that people used guns defensively in 166,900 nonfatal violent crimes between 2014 and 2018, an average of 33,380 per year. Over the same period, the survey tallied 183,300 property crimes involving defensive gun use, averaging 36,660 per year. Combined, these figures account for 70,040 instances of defensive gun use annually.
However, the NCVS has limitations. It excludes simple assault cases, and interviewers only ask about defensive measures if respondents report being victims of certain crimes, including rape, assault, burglary, larceny, and car theft. This means victims of trespassing and commercial crimes are not asked about defensive gun use. Additionally, interviewers do not directly ask about guns; they ask what respondents did to protect themselves, leaving it to respondents to mention firearms.
The Higher Estimate: Gary Kleck's Research
The higher figure, favored by gun rights advocates, originates from a 1993 phone survey of 5,000 adults conducted by Florida State University professor Gary Kleck. Respondents were asked if they or household members had used a gun for self-defense in the past five years, even if it wasn’t fired. Just over 1 percent said yes. Kleck extrapolated this to the entire adult population of 200 million, concluding that Americans use guns defensively up to 2.1 million to 2.5 million times a year.
Researchers have identified flaws in Kleck’s methodology. In 1993, the U.S. adult population was around 200 million, but only about 42 percent owned guns. Extrapolating survey results to the entire adult population therefore overestimates DGU. Kleck has countered that respondents underreport defensive gun use due to fear of legal consequences, noting that in some states, pointing a weapon can lead to arrest, and even if cleared, individuals may face significant legal fees and reputational damage.
Gun Violence Archive's Count
The Gun Violence Archive also tracks defensive gun use, but only captures incidents that make the news or are reported to police. From 2021 to 2025, GVA recorded 6,534 cases, averaging around 1,300 per year—likely a significant undercount of actual occurrences.
Political Context and Reactions
The CDC’s decision to restore the estimates comes amid broader actions by the Trump administration to relax gun restrictions. Since returning to office, President Trump has curtailed gun restrictions, gutted gun violence prevention and research funding, weakened oversight of gun dealers, and directed the Justice Department to sue cities and states to dismantle their gun laws. The administration also allowed 92-year-old regulations on silencers and short-barreled long guns to lapse.
The debate over defensive gun use data is unlikely to subside, as researchers and advocates continue to clash over the accuracy and interpretation of these figures. The CDC’s reinstatement of the contested range underscores the ongoing tension between scientific inquiry and political influence in the realm of gun policy.
